On 10 March BBC2 broadcast the first in a series of drama-documentaries, If..., "to analyse the biggest issues that will face us in the years ahead by exploring future scenarios."

In the first episode, set in the winter of 2010, Britain is struggling to generate enough electricity to cope with demand. Most of our gas reserves in the North Sea have been used up and the country is already heavily dependent on imported gas to generate electricity, most of which we buy from Russia. At that time gas fuels almost 60% of UK electricity generation, and renewables (mostly wind) 10%. Coal and nuclear have fallen to about 16% each. A terrorist attack on a gas pipeline in Russia cuts off much of the UK's gas supply. This incident coincides with prolonged cold and calm weather, causing massive power cuts in the East and South of England with devastating effects.

Combining drama with expert commentary, including from NIA Chairman, Tony Cooper, the programme powerfully highlights the country's dependence on electricity for almost every aspect of our lives. People are left with no heat and no light. They are trapped in lifts and on the Tube. Road travel is disrupted by failed traffic lights. Looting occurs. As one of the commentators in the programme said, "Without electricity the whole fabric of society will break down." Politicians who preside over a failure to keep the lights on are unlikely to survive long in office, as the fate of the fictional Energy Minister, Bill McAllister, demonstrates.

Such a scenario is neither implausible nor sensationalist, but could occur as a direct result of our current energy policy. In an electricity market that provides little incentive to generators to invest in new capacity, with coal and nuclear stations coming to the ends of their useful lives, and increased reliance on intermittent wind and gas imports for the bulk of our generating capacity, Britain's security of electricity supply will be in serious jeopardy. According to research by Professor John Gittus, Britain could move from being the most to the least energy self-sufficient country among the developed nations within 20 years.*

Moreover, under the present arrangements no one is directly responsible for ensuring that the lights stay on. As Dieter Helm remarked at the conclusion of the film, "If you want the lights to stay on, if you want security of supply, if you want what a modern economy needs you have to be absolutely clear what your priorities are, who has the right powers and how they will be exercised, then the market works. But we're a long way from that point yet, and that is the challenge that should be at the DTI's door morning noon and night."

* Comparison of supply security in G8 countries: 2004-2024